Monday, January 16, 2006

the price of unintended consequences..

the united states, already deeply involved in the reconstruction of 2 islamic states, deferred the iran issue to the europeans for resolution. given the european history in dealing with potential (and current) threats, this move may have damning consequences felt world wide.

i'm a firm believer that when you are a leader, you cannot take time off from being a leader. even when you feel taxed and stretched, people look to leaders for leadership.. there are no off days.

one of george bush's apparent miscalculations was to allow the iranian issue to fester under the watchful eye of the europeans. while the united states took time to shore up efforts in iraq and afghanistan, the iranians put more moves on the euro's than barry sanders on sunday.

the iranians are following the north korean playbook to a tee. it appears as if they have had discussions, not only on arms, but on strategy as well. everyone knows that the iranian missile program is based on the north korean one.. now, their strategy in dealing with the world community is a copy as well.. a copy with one major twist.

the new iranian president has an apolcalyptic view of his nation's role in the return of the 12th prophet, or mahdi. he has taken a more aggressive stance - threatening israel, threatening the global oil markets and his neighbors.

israel cannot stand for a nuclear iran.. it would not surprise me at all to see a strike against iran in the next couple of months. iran may make the assumption that with the sharon stroke, israel may not be in a position to make such a strike, but i think that line of thinking is folly. israel, most assuredly has been training and planning such a strike for years. israel, more than any country on earth, knows what to take from the empty words and demands on the euro's.

the only country on earth that can lead right now is the united states, but will that happen ?? will israel have to act alone and withstand the global outcry and condemnation ? will israel utilize nuclear weapons of their own to neutralize the iranian threat ??

none of these options seem palatable, but that's what happens when the one country that is capable of leading decides to defer to those who cannot.

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